Wednesday, September 28, 2011

MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD :AVOID


Dear sir I am a new investor in share market now planning to make an investment of Rs 40000/- in long term. I plan invest equally on Muthoot finance since I aim for a multibager. I will hold these stocks for at least 1 year. Please provide me your views on them and if they are not good provide me other advices also. From Allwin
1. Respected allwain ji, MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD is a 10 rupee face value gold finance company.
2. My view is negative for gold I think bull market of gold is near about to his end and you wonder that my target for gold is 7800 in 2012-2015.
3. It is not a fake , market is always cyclic , in 2009 when reliance trade near 1500 than I already warn my blog readers for reliance fall read this story as proof:-
http://sharegenius.blogspot.com/2009/03/sell-reliance-industry-this-week-buy.html
( This article give me  big popularity because after this article reliance ltd is down from 1500 to 765 and arvind ltd is up from 13 to 101 and mahindra and mahindra is go to 800 from 385 )

4. So suppose if gold price really fall as my target than who will repay his gold loan?? And that is the end of all gold finance companies.
5. Promoters holding of MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD is 80.12 % and FII holding 7.04% which are good.
6. Book value of MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD is 60.10 so stock is already traded at 2.3 time of book value.
7. One another rule that “I always avoid a new IPO for one year. And muthoot is a new stock. So this is not a value buying for me.
8. So overall my view is negative due to business model of company because they finance on behalf of gold and my view is bearish on gold commodity.
9. I have no any stock of MUTHOOT FINANCE LTD.

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