Monday, March 29, 2010

GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD: HIGH DEBT COMPANY WITH FII NAGATIVE VIEW

Dear Kaushik ji'
Really i was very much fascinated when i was reading ur recommendations about the stocks and various ways through which u analyz them. i would like ur comments about one stock GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD. which despite good promoter holding
and fii 's holding and very few public holding and with good financials is not performing in the market.
I will appreciate if ur goodself kindly spare out some time and analyse about poor performance of this stock.

Ask by shri N.Aggarwal C.A. from dehli

1. GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD. is a 10 rupees face value share of textiles industries in BSE group B.I like 10 rupees face value share due to future chance of stock spilt and I think 10 rupess is a fair face value to estimate stock valuation.
2. 52 week high of GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD. is 85.60 and 42.05 is 52 week low.share traded near about it 52 week low
3. book value of GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD. is 54.93 book value of share is higher than it market price so this is a value buying for long term.
4. Promoter holding is 44.68 and FII holding 4.62 percent. promoter holding is also normal
5. EPS of GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD. is 6.47 so current P/E is 7.55. Good EPS and low PE also show fundamentally sound position of share
6.now I told you reason that why this share is traded near it 52 week low when all other fundamental is good HSBC BANK (MAURITIUS) LIMITED is a big FII and big shareholder of this company and it sell 325000 share of this company @60 at 29.01.2010 and also sell 171063 share at 1.02.2010 in price of 60 so market price of this share fall due to low demand and heavy supply from HSBC BANK (MAURITIUS) LIMITED.
7. 2nd strong bad fundamental is debt/equity ratio of this company. Debt/equity ratio is 3.11 so it is very high debt company and I am not like company with more than 1.5 debt/equity ratio. and due to high debt this company converted FCCBs into equity, the paid up equity share capital of the Company has increased from 2,18,35,000 equity shares of the face value of Rs. 10/- each to 2,24,85,000 equity shares of the face value of Rs. 10/- each.So overall I not like this company due to high debt and FII nagative view. and equity dilution due to FCCB conversion..

8. I have no any share of this company.
Key words:_ GRABAL ALOK IMPEX LTD buy sell hold recomandations free penny stocks multibagger stock free

Friday, March 26, 2010

GLORY POLYFILMS : COOL DOWN STORY

dear maheshji,
i hav 1000 shares of glory polyfilms @ 24 rs.this stock is not moving from 3 months.plz advise...........ask by shri divya jyoti ji

1. Glory polyfilms is a B group company with 10 rupees face value.
2. glory polyfilms ltd make his year high of 47.35 at 27 march 2009
3. promoter of glory polyfilms hold 29.70 percent share and pledged his 55.18 percent holding so low promoter holding with pledged share is not good sign
4. This share march 2009 EPS is 2.80 so currently traded at P/E of 7 which is low P/E.
5. book value of glory polyfilms is 37.41 so share traded below it book value is a good sign for long term investment and book value is continue in uptrend in last 4 year.
6.So it is not a bed idea to hold your share for a target of 40 to 55 in coming years.

7. i give same view at 2 oct 2009 about this share and aspected price of 40 in coming 3-4 month but my view is fail and this share is not move but fundamentally this is not a bad company.
8. however this share make his all time high near about 208 in dec 2008 so this is a cool down story and you knew when a share cool down after a big run than waing period is long about 2-5 year.
THIS ANALYSIS IS MAHESH CHANDER KAUSHIK OPINION ONLY NOT A PROFESSIONAL ADVICE SO READ DISCLAIMER BEFORE TAKE ANY ACTION.

PLEASE SENT ONLY ONE QUESTION AT A TIME.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

BIRLA COTSYN INDIA LTD: GOOD TRADING STOCK


Respected Sir,
hi mahesh ji,
i have bought 70000 shares of BIRLA COTSYN @1.02 per share.should i hold??give ur opinion about future of this company ask by divya jyoti
1. Birla cotsyn (india)ltd is a 1 rupees face value share of textiles industries in BSE group T.remember face value of this share is 1 rupees only so if we compare current market price 0.97 to 10 rupees face value than it is 9.70 so share is not cheap.
2. 52 week high of Birla cotsyn (india)ltd is 1.47 and 0.33 is 52 week low.
3. book value of Birla cotsyn (india)ltd is 1.34 book value of share is near about it market price so I think share is fairly priced.
4. Promoter holding is 34.13 and FII holding nil percent. normal promoter holding but FII interst is zero
5. EPS of Birla cotsyn (india)ltd is 0.07 so current P/E is 13.86. not very exiting EPS
6.Birla Cotsyn (India) Ltd has informed BSE that at the meeting of the Committee of the Board of Directors of the Company, duly convened and held on March 15, 2010, the Company has allotted to 'The Bank of New York Mellon' in its capacity as Depositary, 968,900,000 fully paid equity shares of Re. 1.00 each of the Company to be represented by a global master GDR certificate representing 9,689,000 Global Depository Receipts. this is a same story to cals refinary in GDR terms

7. I think company is not very exited but due to his name including "birla" and low price it is a great trader choice and I think market victim huge rally in coming months (may be) so if this is happen this stock also run very fast..


Key words:_ intra day tips trading tips birla cotsyn buy sell hold shouled I we buy sell birla cotsyne book value face value fundamentals sound weak target for birla cotsyn penny stock multibagger recomandations free tips birla cotsyn

Saturday, March 20, 2010

DIGJAM LTD: NAGATIVE BOOK VALUE SHARE


Respected Sir,
Hi mahesh,
How are you? Hope you are doing well.
Digjam is expected to hit 6.25 in coming days. It is a best buy at 6-7. Please let me know your thoughts on this. Thanks.
Kind Regards,
Sharan
1. Digjam Ltd is a 10 rupees face value share of textiles industries.I like 10 rupees face value share due to future chance of stock spilt.
2. 52 week high of Digjam Ltd is 16.34 and 3.81 is 52 week low.digjam is hit rs 10 due to textile rally is starting in this market
3. book value of Digjam Ltd is -10.01 please note book value is nagative(-) so this situation show fundamentally very weak position..
4. Promoter holding is 26.81 and FII holding nil percent. promoter holding in this share is very low so fundamentally this is a weak situation but this type of promoter holding is a good take over target so I think one day this share run sharply if any take over story occurred
5. EPS of Digjam Ltd is nil so current P/E is infinitive. EPS of this share is nil because company is in loss
6.digjam already give 300 percent retrun from it year low due to speculation rally . Some bulk deal also shown in this share but they are in nutral side means only change hands no fresh buying interest is shown in this share.
7. I not like this share due to nagative book value , low promoters holding ,high debt, loss on balance sheet and weak record. I think if you interested in textile sectore than arvind ltd is my favorites . Discloser:- I personally hold 1402 share of ARVIND LTD so my interest is including in this share..

SECUNDERABAD HEALTHCARE LTD: THE HOT KHICHADI


Respected Sir,
I enjoy reading your column regulerly.Sir I bought secunderabad health care 2000 @19 for long term .Please give your advice
Ajish Kumar
Pathanamthitta (dist)
Kerala
1. Secunderabad healthcare Ltd. is a 10 rupees face value share of healthcare services industries.I like 10 rupees face value share due to future chance of stock spilt.
2. 52 week high of Secunderabad healthcare Ltd. is 42.5 and 11.42 is 52 week low.so current price is near to 52 week low.
3. book value of Secunderabad healthcare Ltd. is 14.42 book value of share is near about it market price so I think share is fairly priced.
3. Promoter holding is 22.89 and FII holding nil percent. promoter holding in this share is very low so fundamentally this is a weak situation but this type of promoter holding is a good take over target so I think one day this share run sharply if any take over story occurred
4. EPS of Secunderabad healthcare Ltd. is 0.70 so current P/E is 24.64. low EPS and high P/E show share may showdown side till 13-14 but it is not sure.
5.in price range of 17-18 some bulk deal is showen in this share
CLICK HERE TO READ DETAILS ABOUT THESE BULK DEAL so these bulk deal on buying side show that in near future a speculation khichadi may be cooking
6. I think it is good to hold and fresh buying in this share for enjoy the test speculation khichadi. But be cautious this khichadi is very hot and may burn your mouth if you try to eat it very fast. So please read disclamair before take any action.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

BATA INDIA : HIGH PRICE


Dear Mahesh ji

Can you please tell us your view on Bata India- ask by shri sanjay ji
1. bata India is a 10 rupees face value share of footwear industries.
2. 255.80 is 52 week high of this share and 85.90 is 52 week low so current price is near about 52 week high.

3. dear readers to day I tell you a main point about see “intra day chart” look this share intra day chart on this blog . what you note ? you noted that when share touch day high of 248 than volume is very high. It means big player get out from this share at every high price. SO WE EXPECTED A SHORT TERM DOWN FALL . but in long term share is not bad . because when a share have low public holding and continue pay dividend than it is good for long term but entry price for long term is near about 120-170 is genuine. In currant price time to book part profit or wait.
4. FY 08-09 EPS of this share is 10.46 so current P/E is more than 22. so we think current price of this share is high.
5. promoter holding is 51.02 and FII holding 10.33 percent is normal.
6. this is a dividend paying company.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

WHY I BUY KAMDHENU ISPAT LTD?


Today I buy 100 shares of kamdhenu ispat ltd @19.50 and I think I told my blog reader that why I choose this share to invest my hard earn three months savings ( please do not wonder because I am a salaried employee and after all deduction or all need of my family I save 600-700 per month for invest in market so I save 2000 in three months and want to invest this saving to built my future as a Indian warren buffet) so I decide to publish complete criteria to filter this share for my portfolio because I think it may educate my blog fans or readers.
1. kamdhenu steel have a low share price of 19.50 so I easily buy 100 share in 1950 and with brokerage my investment is only 1980 and my budget is 2000 so I think this share is fit in my budget.
2. Kamdhenu steel has 10 rupees face value and as you knew that I like share with 10 rupees face value so it fulfill my first criteria.
3. Book value of kamdhenu ispat ltd is 36.16 so my buying price is just half of book value means a value buying for long term.
4. Then I check promoter holding it is 51.05 percent and I like share which promoter holding is more than 50 percent.
5. Kamdhenu ispat IPO come in 3 April 2006 and IPO price of this share is 25 so my buying price is on 26 percent discount of IPO price.
CLICK HERE TO READ IPO PROSPECTUS OF KAMDHENU ISPAT LTD
6. This share gives 0.80 paisa per share dividend in 2008 so it means it is an investor friendly company.
7. Debt equity ratio is 0.76 and I like company below 1.5 debt equity ratio.
8. In March 2009 net operating profit per share is 196.91 and free reserves per share is 25.13
9. Currently company is in loss so currant price is down due to loss in balance sheet and I think this is a well known company and these advertisement shows on TV daily in various channels so I think one day it recover it loss.
10. 52 week high of this share is 26.85 and 52 week low is 10.25
So after test this share on above criteria’s finally I decide to put my hard earn savings of rs. 2000 in kamdhenu ispat ltd.
11. When I sell this share? -
I never sell this share in my life in loss. Because I invest such a small money and able to forget this. And in profit I wait minimum April 2011 because I not want to pay 15 percent short term capital gains tax. After 1 year in April 2011 my profit on this share is TAX FREE. So after 2011 if I see a price more then 60 then I decide to book my TAX FREE PROFIT in whole holding or part profit booking as situation may allow.
12. Current price of kamdhenu ispat is 18.85 and share is continuing in down trend.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

SINTEX: WISE TO WAIT


Mahesh came across your blog. What do you think about GDL & Sintex Industries?Thanks-- Anurag Jain
1. Sintex industries are a 2 rupees face value plastic product company.
2. FY 08-09 EPS of this company is 19.68 and share traded at P/E multiple of 13 so reasonable price valuation is there.
3. Promoter hold 30.15 and FII hold 27.68 percent stake in sintex industries so holding pattern show that share price may see volatile due to huge FII interest.
4. This company continue pay dividend since 2006.
5. Book value of this share is 119.27
6. although share of sintex industries traded a fair valuation but due to low book value we are cautious and I think if anyone hold sintex than it is wise to book 40 percent holding at current price and remain 40 percent at 320+ than re purchased near about 110-150 range in next fall.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

Empower industries india ltd:operator’s interest and speculation


I want your valuable advice in Empower industries india ltd. Should I invest in this stock.pls suggest me.what is it future? ask by shri Anoop kumar from kerala
a. empower industries India is an IT company of 1 rupees face value.
b. this share is related with BSE group T share and free float quantity of this group share is very low so these share get circuit easily. Currently this share is on 5 percent upper circuit.
c. 52 week low for this share is 2.55 only
d. fundamentally it is not sound EPS of FY 08-09 only 0.11 so shares traded at very high very risky P/E. more than 390
e. promoter hold only 7.32 percent in empower industries very low promoter holding.
f. Empower Industries India Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on February 12, 2010, inter alia, has approved the following matters:1. Issue of Bonus Shares in the Ratio of 23:2 (Twenty three new Equity Shares for every 2 existing Equity shares held) to the existing Shareholders of the Company as on the Record date.2. Issue of 3,00,00,and 000 Equity Shares on Preferential Basis to various Allotters under Section 81(1A) of the Companies Act, 1956.3. Increasing the Authorized Share Capital of the Company from 2 Crores to 15 Crores.
g. all of above points are bad for share and dilute equity of this share means reduce EPS of company for more information about how bonus reduce EPS of company read following link
http://sharegenius.blogspot.com/2009/10/bonus-issue-gives-only-psychological.html
h. bulk deals happen in this share that so operator’s interest and speculation so I think one can avoid this share .

Thursday, March 4, 2010

GATE WAY DISTRI PARK: HOLD


Mahesh came across your blog. What do you think about Gate way Distri Park?Thanks-- ask by shri Anurag Jain ji
1. Promoter holdings in gate way distripark is 45.54 percent and it is good that promoter increase there holding from 43.46 percent (sept 2008) to 45.54 percent and FII hold 19.95 percent in this scrip is also a good pattern.
2. This is a 10 rupees face value Transportation – Logistics Company.
3. This company continues give dividends so not bad to hold.
4. Gateway Distriparks Ltd has informed BSE that a fire has broken out on January 31, 2010 late night at the warehouse of the Company's Punjab Conware CFS facility at Navi Mumbai. The Company has rushed the Fire brigade to the spot and they are making efforts to put out the fire. Insurance authorities and the other external agencies have been notified and the extent of damage is being assessed. The Company is also making arrangements for minimum disruption to the operations. So this is the primary reason for current fall in this share.
5. So I think it is not bad to hold this share but for a fresh buying below 80or range of 80-60 is a good buying because book value of this scrip is 58.78 only

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

AVOID:Ashco Niulab Industries Limited


Respected mahesh ji,
Would like your advice on investing in the following share for both long and short terms.
Ashco Niulab Industries Limited Thanks, ask by shri Venkat.
1. ashco niulab industries limited is a electronic component company and this share is spilt from 10 rupees face value to 1 rupees face value at 8.12.2009 most of investors think this share fall sharply but this is a spilt adjustment ( when a stock spilt from 10 rupees face value to 1 rupees his price adjusted 1/10).
2. Promoter holding is 43.10 percent in this share is quite normal. Kotwani group is promoter of Ashco Niulab Industries Limited
3. In FY 08-09 this is a loss making company net loss of FY 08-09 is 1.85 million and December 2009 quarter EPS is only 0.01 not very exited revenue or profits.
4. in December 2008 promoter holding of Ashco Niulab Industries Limited
Is 9.51 percent than they increase his holdings 62.07 percent in sept 2009 and again decrease it 43.10 percent in December 2009 I think something is speculative there not fundamental.
5. book value of ashoo niulab is 1.13 and share traded at P/E of 119
6. Overall I think it is better to avoid this share.

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