Clarification About Base Price

Hello Maheshji sir,
 Namaste.
 First of all thank you so much for writing such a nice book.
 I would like to ask a question related to Base price: For trading: if the stock is up 5-10% from it's base price it is strong buy. which is clear.
 Now my question is related to investor purpose: you mentioned below 20% base price stock is good buy. What if stock is in falling trend fall for 20 % and falling more- should we still buy it or should we look for the stock which is up in trend and reaching the below 20% level from the base price. How to find/understand the trend of the stock if it's moving up or down for short and long both period.
 Also if you could provide your analysis on Monte Carlo and IDFC, that would be great help.
 Thank you so much in advance for all your help.
 Hope to learn more from you in the future.
 Thanks, Manish registration ID 14581
1. Manish ji, first of all your welcome in sharegenius family, please do not forget ask only one question in a month, in your mail you have 3 separate questions first about base price second about monte carlo and third about IDFC.
2. You ask "if stock is in falling trend fall for 20 % and falling more- should we still buy it or should we look for the stock which is up in trend and reaching the below 20% level from the base price. ?"
3. If you find any stock which is in up trend and just reach below 20 % level from base price then it is a sure buy , but finding of this type of stock is very hard for manual finding.
4. your next query is "if stock is in falling trend fall for 20 % and falling more- should we still buy it?" in this condition check year high/low ratio of stock if this ratio is below 2 then you may buy it but your waiting period for decent return in this situation is long term means 1-2 years.
5. you may find such type of stocks at my main website www.maheshkaushik.com
6. Now we take your stocks for a short analysis first Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd is a 10 rupee face value stock which year high/low is also below 2 but this is an avoid due to recent bulk deal and huge falls in net sales. 
7. IDFC is also an avoid in my theory due to low net sale per share ( which is 57 so I think buy below 57 is a best value for IDFC).
Read my recent research about dividend reinvestment in mutual fund schemes:-
Why mutual fund dividend reinvestment option is better than growth option?
8. Discloser:- I Mahesh Chander Kaushik author of this research report is an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also applied for a grant of registration under SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 hereby disclose about my financial interest in the subject company and the nature of such financial interest:- 1  Me and my associates or relatives have no any stocks of IDFC and Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd company so my personal interest is not included in these stocks. 2. Me and my associates or relatives have/have not any actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more securities of the subject company(IDFC and Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd). 3. Me and my associates or relatives have /have not any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report. 4. Me and my associates or relatives have/have not not received any type of compensation from the subject company(IDFC and Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd) in the past twelve months. 5. I am not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company(IDFC and Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd). 6. I have been not engaged in market making activity for the subject company(IDFC and Monte Carlo Fashions Ltd).

Karuturi Global Ltd:Avoid

Dear Mahesh ji hi sir, I was doing some research thought it would be better to ask you before do any investments in karutui global ltd stock so your feedback is very much appreciated. Thanks sudheer my registration ID is 12015 

1.Karuturi Global Ltd is a 1 Rupee face value Agricultural Products Stock which currently traded at 2.30. 

2. Year High ( 52 week High) of Karuturi Global Ltd is 2.85 and Year low (52 Week low) is 1.16, So as per my 52 week high/low ratio formula this ratio is 2.46, If you read my book then you may knew that If any stock year high/low ratio is above 2 then stock price is not stable and generally I am not recommended to buy any stock which year high/low ratio is above 2. 

3. Karuturi Global Ltd have total 809726648 shares, Promoters hold 5.52 % FII hold 15.80% and DII hold 0.20% shares.Promoters pledged theire 22.39 % stocks so I am not like this stock due to very low promoters holding with pledged shares. 

4. Karuturi Global Ltd Net sales on FY 2013-14 is 14.1 Cr.( and not declare results after Dec 2014) So when we divided total shares 809726648 in FY 2013-14 sales then we get a ratio “Net sale per share per year” which is 0.17. 

5. So If we compare this 0.17 from current market price 2.30 then we find that CMP is above Net sale per share per year, So as per my formula of valuation CMP is much higher from fair value of stock. 

6.Book value of Karuturi Global Ltd is 12.06 , So CMP is discounted to book value price/book value ratio is 0.19, If you are not familiar with book value then please read this article Book value is not always show fair valuation of stocks. 

8. Overall I think I think you may avoid this stock due to very low promoters holding with pledged shares and high valuation on basis of net sales 

9. Discloser:- I am an existing research analyst and passed NISM certification for research analysts. I am also applied for a grant of registration under SEBI(RESEARCH ANALYSTS) REGULATIONS, 2014 and I have/my wife have no any stocks of this company so my personal interest is not included in this stock.